Subject: Myanmar Coup Updates for April 22
1 in 10 could be food insecure within next few months as Myanmar economy collapses; NUG members charged with high treason; NUG seeks Interpol arrest of Min Aung Hlaing in Jakarta; explosions in Yangon and Muse; Duterte to skip ASEAN summit in further blow to its credibility; an active civil society response to the ASEAN summit; Chevron lobbies against sanctions; Bangladesh pushes two Rohingya back to Myanmar
- The coup contributes to a food security crisis: The UN World Food Programme predicts that up to 3.4 million additional people will struggle to afford food in the next 3-6 months as the combination of job losses, COVID, and rising commodity prices push more people into food insecurity; the challenges could be further compounded if the coming planting season, which requires imports of fertilizer and seed, comes up short. This is on top of 2.8 million people who are already food insecure, meaning that more than 1 in 10 residents of Myanmar could be food insecure within a few months. WFP is seeking an additional $106 million in funding to support this assistance.
- Not so business friendly: Though it has sought to present itself as business friendly, the coup has left Myanmar's economy in tatters, with the World Bank predicting a 10% contraction in GDP and Fitch 20%. Moreover, the banking sector is in crisis, new company registrations are down 90%, the internet shutdowns have destroyed the emerging digital economy, the garment sector has contracted by 1/3 and as many as 400,000 construction workers are out of work, and investors are either suspending projects or fleeing the country.
- NUG members charged with high treason: After the NUG was declared an unlawful association, the entire NUG cabinet was charged with high treason in an announcement on state media.
- NUG seeks Interpol arrest of Min Aung Hlaing: The NUG has called on Interpol to arrest Min Aung Hlaing when he travels to Jakarta for the ASEAN summit (see below).
- NUG minister apologies for not speaking up for ethnic minorities:NUG’s Minister for Women Children, and Youth Affairs Naw Susanna Hla Hla Soe apologized for not raising "the voice for our brothers and sisters in ethnic areas, including Rohingya" in the previous government term; activists are calling for the NUG's Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Win Myat Aye, and the Deputy Defense Minister, Khin Ma Ma Myo, to make similar apologies.
- Explosions in Yangon and Muse target junta: Several explosions were reported in Yangon on Tuesday night and Wednesday, including at Insein prison and at the residence of a member of the SAC, as well as in Muse. There have been a string of bombings in the last week, seemingly targeting infrastructure affiliated with the regime and with no or few injuries reported.
- The obstacles to a federal army: A good thread here on the formation of a federal army, which raises a number of key questions including: What EAOs could take in and train a flood of new recruits? Do they have enough supplies? Will EAOs see the burdens imposed on them as in their interests?
- International response
- Duterte to skip summit as ASEAN stumbles towards summit:President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte will not attend Saturday's ASEAN summit, apparently to attend to the COVID situation in the Philippines. That is the same reason given by Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth, who is also skipping the summit to address the COVID situation in Thailand (though he did speak to Indonesian President Jokowi on Thursday). Though it is unlikely to be invited, ASEAN has finally made contact with the NUG, while Dr. Sasa called for ASEAN not to engage the junta unless it returns power to the NUG, stops killing civilians, bombing ethnic areas, blocking health workers from providing treatment, and release those detained. That the summit has taken more than a month to organize and still numerous leaders are not participating is not a good look for the bloc's crisis response capabilities. Moreover, many continue to argue that, while it has worked for the bloc in the past, constructive engagement "should not be invoked to engage with those who hold power unlawfully or illegitimately." That concern does not seem to have stopped ASEAN since the coup, with the Tatmadaw touting its attendance at least six ASEAN meetings throughout March.
- What can ASEAN achieve? The Irrawaddy has a useful summary of some of proposals likely to be considered, including an ASEAN special envoy, a humanitarian and/or monitoring mission, and track two dialogue. Former Singaporean Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong is thought to be the lead candidate for the special envoy role, though former Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa and former Thai deputy prime minister Surakiart Sathirathai (who chaired the ill-fated Advisory Board on Rakhine), are also in the running.
- Civil society's response to and demands of ASEAN:In parallel to the summit, protests are planned in Jakarta, a "model ASEAN summit" for youth will be held, and a "paper strike" is planned within Myanmar. Ahead of the summit, ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights held a press conference (summarized here) and a "Southeast Asian Peoples' Summit on Myanmar" called for ASEAN recognition of the NUG, a joint ASEAN-UN mission to Myanmar, ASEAN support for targeted sanctions (including a global arms embargo), and humanitarian access for IDPs and refugees. Forum Asia released a report on ASEAN members' responses to the coup on Thursday, with similar recommendations as the Southeast Asian Peoples' Summit.
- Chevron lobbying against sanctions on oil and gas sector: Amid a growing push for sanctions against Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprises and making a similar argument as Total - that not paying taxes to the junta would breach their contract and put employees at risk - Chevron is lobbying against possible sanctions on the oil and gas industry. Lobbyist for the junta Ari Ben-Menashe said sanctions that drive out Chevron and Total could compel Myanmar to seek Chinese partners and drive the regime closer to China, which is ironic given that he has previously argued that ASSK's close relationship with China was a rationale for the coup.
- Junta seeks accreditation for new diplomats in US: In a test for the US Government, the military is apparently seeking accreditation for more than a dozen diplomats to be posted across the US. Though it has led the international community in its criticism of the junta and in the actions it has taken, the request creates a predicament for the US: if it refuses to accredit the military-nominated diplomats, the military could respond in kind by booting US diplomats from Myanmar, while providing accreditation would be perceived as tacit recognition of the regime.
- Manipur provides some protection to refugees, as Bangladesh pushes Rohingya back to Myanmar: In a case involving seven refugees from Myanmar, the High Court in Manipur ruled that the Indian Constitution protects non-citizens from refoulement (though India's Supreme Court earlier refused to protect Rohingya refugees from deportation). In Bangladesh, however, two Rohingya who crossed the border from Myanmar were pushed back on Wednesday (article in Bangla).
Steve Ross
Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement
